Thanks for the input Brian! Glad you like the podcast.

“I also skipped his section on Fibonacci retracements. It does work for some traders, but I find Fibos a little too arbitrary for my taste. Maybe I will learn to appreciate them one day, but for now, I ignore them.”

I agree completely. Let’s face it, Fibos are real, and Fibos are based on actual mathematic relationships, but to expand upon that and assert you can trade upon this it ridiculous. Look, people do have a natural time clock in their heads, that’s why we have music and dance, but music and dance take place in isolation. When you look at a chart, you are looking at all time frames trading at the same time. That’s not art, that’s noise. Yes the markets do have a fractal nature but that’s not magic, people are closing small winners and holding losers on all time frames, so of course price is going to move in a staggering manner as the less skilled winners, and the losers, who actually move the price, do what they can always be trusted to do.

I think things like Fibos and Elliott Wave are robust enough to support whatever self delusion one has that they can predict the future. That’s the problem, our trust in our predictive powers comes to supercede our trust in our process and execution, and then we find ourselves doing something stupid just because price has moved 61.8%. How many times have you heard a winner say, “Keep it Simple”? The truth is most traders would be better off with a dart board and a blindfold than what they think is a “high probability trade.” If they just gave up and used the dart board, they’d start doing the right things behind the keyboard.

Love the podcast

Brian